New Georgia Data Gives Insight on Primaries, Polls and Possibly November

The verdict from the presidential primaries is already in, but the best data on what they mean for the general election is only now beginning to arrive.

That data is vote history: a person-by-person record of who voted and who did not. It offers a definitive account of the makeup of the electorate, and it will help answer some of the most important questions of the primary season, from whether the Nikki Haley voters already back President Biden to whether the primary results suggest Mr. Biden is better positioned than the polls suggest.

Last week, we got the first big tranche of vote history data from a place where we’ve done a recent state poll: Georgia.

At least here, it suggests that most Haley voters already supported Mr. Biden in 2020. It also implies that Mr. Biden’s strength in the primaries is not inconsistent with polls showing him struggling among young and Black voters.

The Haley vote in Georgia

In the Republican primary in Georgia, Ms. Haley received 13.2 percent of the vote. That may not have been anywhere near enough to win, but it could easily be enough to be a big headache for Donald J. Trump if those are Republicans who have soured on the former president.

The vote history data offers a few clues suggesting that Mr. Trump doesn’t have much to worry about here — or at least nothing new to worry about. Most of these voters already backed Mr. Biden in the 2020 election and continue to back him in 2024.

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